The Magnificent 7 stocks¹ continue to capture the focus of investors as these large growth names have outpaced the bulk of global equities. Their outperformance is notable because eye-popping returns for top stocks tend to occur before they reach the top of the market. Once there, subsequent returns tend to lag the market.
This pattern isn’t unique to today’s tech titans—history shows that the biggest names in any era often deliver their strongest performance before becoming household names. By the time a company joins the ranks of the largest US stocks, much of its rapid growth is typically behind it. Investors drawn to these stocks after they’ve reached the top may find that future gains are less impressive compared to the broader market.
Such trends highlight the importance of evaluating how and when these companies generated their returns, and serve as a reminder that chasing recent winners may not be a recipe for long-term success.
This is a cautionary tale for investors expecting continued outperformance from the Magnificent 7. In fact, rather than seeking additional exposure to these mega cap stocks, investors should ensure their portfolios are broadly diversified to capture the returns of whatever companies ascend to the top in the future.
Understanding the Risks
It’s worth remembering that all investments carry risks. The value of your investment, and any returns you earn, can fluctuate—sometimes dramatically—meaning you may end up with more or less than you originally invested. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and even the most successful strategies can underperform expectations or fail to repeat historical patterns. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss, but it can help position your portfolio to benefit from the next generation of market leaders, wherever they may arise.
EXHIBIT 1
Annualized returns in excess of the US market before and after joining the top 10 largest US stocks, January 1927–December 2022
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
In USD. Data from CRSP and Compustat. Companies are sorted every January by beginning-of-month market capitalization to identify first-time entrants into the top 10.
The market is defined as the Fama/French Total US Market Research Index. The Fama/French indices represent academic concepts that may be used in portfolio construction and are not available for direct investment or for use as a benchmark. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors of the general partner of, and provide consulting services to, Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. See “Index Description” for a description of the Fama/French index data.
Indices are not available for direct investment. The index has been included for comparative purposes only.
FOOTNOTES
- 1The Magnificent 7 stocks include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla. Named securities may be held in accounts managed by Dimensional.
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