Proceed with Caution Focusing on Yield

Senior man working on a laptop with an attentive woman standing behind him, possibly collaborating or discussing the content on the screen, in a bright indoor setting.

Investors selecting funds based on dividend yield should be aware that high yield is no assurance of higher expected return. Plotting 10-year annualized returns vs. average dividend yield for US large cap equity funds shows no meaningful relation between the two. Many of the best-performing funds in the category had below-average yields. And funds specifically targeting high yield can be found on both ends of the return spectrum.

A stock’s total return comprises both capital appreciation and dividends. Emphasizing only one component may reduce diversification and, as the data show, may not increase your expected return.

Exhibit 1 – Yield Sign
Annualized return vs. average dividend yield for US large cap equity funds, January 2014–December 2023

A scatter plot showing the relationship between 10-year average dividend yield (X-axis) and 10-year annual return (Y-axis), with data points color-coded to represent two categories: Large Blend (teal circles) and Dividend Funds (pink diamonds). The yield range is from 0.5% to 3.0%, and returns range from -2% to over 12%.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Source: Dimensional, using data from Morningstar. Sample includes US-domiciled, USD-denominated funds in the Morningstar Large Blend category. Funds with multiple share classes are represented by their oldest share class. Surviving funds with 10 years of returns and 10 years of dividend yield history are included. Data as of December 31, 2023. Data sourced from Morningstar on February 28, 2024.

DISCLOSURES

The information in this document is provided in good faith without any warranty and is intended for the recipient’s background information only. “Dimensional” refers to the Dimensional separate but affiliated entities generally, rather than to one particular entity. Please click here to read the full text of the Dimensional Fund Advisor Disclaimer.

About the Author Douglas Finley, MS, CPWA, CFP, AEP, CDFA

Douglas Finley, MS, CFP, AEP, CDFA founded Finley Wealth Advisors in February of 2006, as a Fiduciary Fee-Only Registered Investment Advisor, with the goal of creating a firm that eliminated the conflicts of interest inherent in the financial planner – advisor/client relationship. The firm specializes in wealth management for the middle-class millionaire.

follow me on:
>